Manchester, Withington is one of the most closely fought constituencies in the country, and the most marginal in South Manchester.
In the 2005 general election, the previous
Labour MP was replaced by Liberal Democrat John Leech
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/john_leech.
This victory was partially attributed to a large amount of effort put in by students campaigning in the constituency, and the number of students who live there. The student vote matters. Following their defeat, one of the local labour activists created
www.JohnLeechWatch.com (also on a variety of other similar domains), as a community "
proxy blog" for tracking what his new MP has been up to, generally supporting the
local labour view on whatever issue is topical. With the creator spending less time on the site (he's now a student in Edinburgh), it seems to have got a lot quieter recently, but the comments have got no less energetic when posts do appear.
In, or before, May 2010, there will be a general election. Turning that into the university calendar, which is what matters for students, there is only one more new academic year. More importantly, while some first years in May 2010 are likely to be politically active within the student societies who will be out campaigning, they will almost certainly not be eligible to vote in Manchester Withington in that election, simply because there are no University of Manchester Halls of Residence within the constituency. Since all freshers are guaranteed a place in halls, almost everyone who will be eligible to vote in Withington then, is a student now (or starts soon).
What happens between now and the election will matter significantly.
The Labour and Lib Dem student societies at Manchester work closely together in the elections in which they stand. Whether that alliance work as a strategy for student elections is far less relevant than the front page of the union newspaper, Student Direct, the week after the latest set concluded. There were two articles, the headline proclaiming what it characterised as the joint labour/libdem victory, but, much more relevant to our interest, was the second story - publication of a somewhat embarrassing letter from John Leech to the (labour supporting) Women's Officer of the Union, sent some weeks earlier (
http://www.student-direct.co.uk/news/withington-rape-sparks-political-row). The timing and delay was unlikely to have been coincidence.
The student voters in Withington will need a reason to come out and vote. While policy is important, it is far harder to get people en mass, who may already trend apathetic, to vote for someone who they believe to be a bit of a buffoon, and not in a Boris kind of way. A multi-year process of promoting what Leech does badly (be it the above in StudentDirect, or JLWatch), with no effective response from the Lib Dem activists, means that the general opinion in the student body is likely to be quite low.
More importantly, while those receiving a nationally focussed message at election time may not yet be here, the majority of activists in that election are already here, and are already engaged within the relevant societies and groups. The success of the labour students suggests that they may be a better position when it comes to the election. A race to the bottom strategy is easier, they're more experienced at it, and the lib dem student activists seem to be ineffective at worst, and nonchalent at best.
While there are some
anecdotes that such an attacks aren't working locally on other communities, the short-term nature of student memories doesn't guarantee this - about half the students living there now were in high school in 2005. Persuading anyone to vote for your candidate (or do anything at all) is far easier if you don't have to start by overcoming negative preconceptions.
On a broader note, while the current libdem/labour fight is currently somewhat traditional and could have run before the last election, there is great potential for some of the better engagement techniques developed over the last few years to be used to great effect. Withington is a constituency containing more than enough potential sources of skill, time, energy and reasonable stakes providing motivation, there is a chance that one of the next innovations in the UK democracy scene may come from someone looking to do something impressive. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be that much indication that John Leech will start to use the infrastructures being built for all MPs(
here), and the Labour effort is heavily centralised (being charitable). Although with the constituency on the major targets list, something may happen.
How will this turn out? We don't know and can't predict. There is under 2 years until that election, and we know who some of the activist players may be, and what they're capable of.
But this is University, with a constant refresh of energy and opinion, mixed with motivation and time. Anywhere there is a group of individuals looking to make things better, magic can happen when someone unknown but outstanding walks in the door and says "You're trying to take over the world, and I think you might need my help".
